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‘The Final Warning Bell’ report published by the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG) warned that Net Negative strategies are urgently required and current global emissions targets to reach Net Zero GHG emissions by 2050 is now “too little too late”. It is likely that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C (34.7°F) as soon as 2030, taking the world into a zone of dangerous climate change.

The report underlines the critical importance to recognise that without greenhouse gas removal, we cannot hit net zero or continue to progress into the negative emissions required in the second half of this century. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “net-negative emissions” is achieved when the removal of human-caused greenhouse gases exceed human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. The specification here is “greenhouse gases” that is driving global climate change which includes carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide and water vapour. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most dominant greenhouse gas produced by the burning of fossil fuels, industrial production, and land use change, therefore a Net Negative strategy should prioritise achieving Carbon Negative emissions.

The CCAG includes leading authorities in climate science, carbon emissions, energy, environment, and natural resources. It is headed by Sir David King and funded by Climate Repair, and some of the members also participate in governmental advisory groups. Its goal is to ‘provide the global public with regular analysis about efforts to tackle the global heating and biodiversity crises’.

The CCAG points out that the current shift in global emissions is not sufficient to avoid global disaster. They warn that that allowing warming of 1.5°C (34.7°F) will be disastrous, and anything beyond that, catastrophic; and while emissions reduction is an essential part of the fight against climate change, it will not be enough to prevent sea level rise, thawing permafrost, the amplification of extreme climate events, and other climate related changes.

The CCAG makes it clear that following a pathway leading only to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is now “too little too late”. It is now or never. There is no room left for manoeuvre, no carbon budget left to spend.

The report was published to assist countries that signed the Paris Agreement in preparing their national emission reduction commitments known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) preparations for COP 26. Unfortunately, the NDCs submitted did not add up to ‘net zero’ emissions for the world by 2050 with China (the world’s largest carbon polluter) delaying to 2060 and India (the world’s 3rd largest carbon polluter) delaying to 2070.

In preparation to COP 27, the final and 3rd part of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change 6th Assessment Report was published on April 2022, drawing on the work of thousands of scientists. It makes it clear that a century of rising emissions must end before 2025 and decrease by half this decade when our planet will likely reach 1.5°C (34.7°F), causing climate breakdown and irreversible destruction in nature. The report also warned that it is now “almost inevitable” that temperatures would rise above 1.5°C (34.7°F) this decade – the level above which many of the effects of climate breakdown will become irreversible.

COP 27 will take place in Egypt from Nov. 7 to 21, and countries need to submit stronger 2030 emissions reduction targets with the aim of closing the gap to limiting global warming to 1.5°C (34.7°F), and also agree that developed countries should urgently deliver more adaptation resources to help climate-vulnerable countries.

It must be NOW.