A historic global Climate Deal was adopted by 198 countries at COP28 in the early morning of December 13. The agreement is a compromise with three sides making concessions – the wealthy, the big oil and the vulnerable poor.

COP28 president Dr. Sultan Al Jaber was beaming when he gave his final speech, “We delivered world first after world first. A global goal to triple renewables and double energy efficiency. Declarations on agriculture, food and health. More oil and gas companies are stepping up for the first time on methane and emissions. And we have language on fossil fuels in our final agreement.” He recognized and rallied the delegates, “You did step up, you showed flexibility, you put common interest ahead of self-interest. Let us finish what we started. Let us unite, act and now deliver. We have the basis to make transformations change happen – let us finish what we have started.”

FIVE MAJOR ACTIONS

The COP28 Summit was organized around four cross-cutting themes – Technology and Innovation, Inclusion, Frontline Communities and Finance; and successfully delivered on 5 major areas of action.

1. The first Global Stocktake on climate action progress. The Global Stocktake Synthesis Report assessed the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the 2015 Paris Agreement signatories and how far they are meeting their climate goals. The report revealed that governments are making insufficient progress and warned that our world is massively off-track in meeting the Paris Agreement goals to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.

2. Speeding the energy transition. The global climate deal called on countries to contribute to global efforts to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems “in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. It called for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030 including the development of “zero- and low-emission technologies – renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture utilisation and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production”. It called on nations to accelerate efforts “towards the phase-down of unabated coal power”, using the same language agreed at previous summits

3. Putting people at the heart of climate action. COP28 operationalised Loss and Damage and started to fill the fund; and mobilized over US$83 billion in new financial commitments. The declarations on agriculture, food and health recognised that unprecedented adverse climate impacts are increasingly threatening the resilience of agriculture and food systems as well as the ability of many, especially the most vulnerable, to produce and access food in the face of mounting hunger, malnutrition, and economic stresses. It also recognised the profound potential of agriculture and food systems to drive powerful and innovative responses to climate change.

4. Climate finance and the impact of global trade. As a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions with production and distribution responsible for around 25% of global emissions, COP28 explored the potential for trade to reduce emissions across the value chain and grow markets for climate-friendly products such as electric vehicles and non-plastic packaging. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) launched Alterra, a US$30 billion climate finance fund aimed at improving the flow of money into projects to reduce emissions and aims to mobilize US$250 billion by the end of the decade. The inaugural launch partners for Alterra will be BlackRock Inc., Brookfield and TPG, and they will be committing US$6.5 billion to climate-dedicated funds for global investment.

5. Broader leadership on climate change. More country and corporate leaders expressed their personal and professional commitment to the climate agenda and more ambitious climate action programmes. COP28 also saw the position of leadership from hydrocarbon companies that stepped up for the first time to reduce methane and emissions.

LEADERSHIP AND PLEDGES

True leaders on climate change stand out. They walk-the-talk and deliver climate actions with an urgent timeline that acknowledge the stark warnings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.

The 2022 IPCC report warned that to limit global temperatures to 1.5°C, 2°C or even 2.5°C, emissions must peak before 2025, plus reduce emissions by 43% before 2030 and methane by 1/3 to prevent worsening climate impacts on communities and the environment.

After the failure to deliver the US$100 billion per year goal on time in 2020 and again in 2022, rich countries were under more pressure to rebuild trust with developing countries at COP28. Significant progress and pledges were made, but an International Energy Agency (IEA) statement said the pledges “would not be nearly enough” to keep global heating to 1.5°C, degrees. The pledges were “positive” and in line with some of the recommendations the IAE made ahead of the talks, but not enough countries had joined them, said Executive Director Fatih Birol.

A COMPROMISE AND LIFELINE

Dr. Al Jaber described the Climate Deal text that called for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade” as the “UAE consensus”.

But he passed the Climate Deal while representatives of small island states were not in the room, to the fury of disappointed representatives, climate groups and charities who described it as “severely flawed”, a “catastrophe”, a “litany of loopholes”, and an “incremental advancement on business-as-usual”.

“The problem with the text is that it still includes cavernous loopholes that allow the United States and other fossil fuel producing countries to keep going on their expansion of fossil fuels.” said Jean Su, energy justice director at the Centre for Biological Diversity. “There’s a pretty deadly, fatal flaw in the text, which allows for transitional fuels to continue which is a code word for natural gas that also emits carbon pollution.”

“Even after hearing of the ‘death sentence’ facing climate-affected countries, major polluters remain tin-eared – all because they remain unwilling to budge an inch to fund a fossil fuel phaseout,” said Zahra Hdidou, senior climate and resilience adviser for ActionAid UK which works with some of the world’s poorest women. “It represents “a catastrophe for many climate-stricken communities in the Global South and a shocking abdication of duty from major polluters”.

“The course correction that is needed has not been secured with the deal representing business-as-usual instead of exponential emissions-cutting efforts”, said Samoa’s lead delegate Anne Rasmussen on behalf of small island nations, and complained that the deal could “potentially take us backward rather than forward.”

“This document sends very strong messages to the world,” said United States Special Envoy John Kerry. “Many, many people here would have liked clearer language” on getting rid of fossil fuels. It’s a compromise.”

United Nations Climate Secretary Simon Stiell told delegates, ” Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end.” He cautioned people that what they adopted was a “climate action lifeline, not a finish line.

NO AGREEMENT ON ARTICLE 6

Many developing and least developed countries do not have the means or the resources necessary to transition towards a low emissions future. To put forward ambitious climate pledges, there are three tools which countries can draw upon under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Article 6.2: Allows countries to exchange mitigation outcomes bilaterally and to report their trade and use them towards their nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

Article 6.4: Establishes a new UNFCCC mechanism for the validation, verification and issuance of high-quality carbon credits.

Article 6.8: Provides opportunities for countries to cooperate towards the achievement of their NDCs without relying on carbon markets.

Unfortunately, no agreement was reached due to integrity concerns and will have to be continued at COP29.

There were many encouraging developments on carbon markets at COP28, but there was no agreement on Article 6 due to integrity issues. The US favored an approach that would hand a prominent role to private sector players from the voluntary carbon market, but the European Union (EU) along with African and Latin American rejected the proposed carbon trading rules and wanted stronger checks and balances and a loosening of confidentiality clauses that could have prevented scrutiny.

It was a missed opportunity to clarify the rules for carbon trading and the role of the VCM.  It means further delay for the important source of funding from carbon markets to cut emissions and support the transition away from fossil fuels. It also leaves the market in limbo since several countries already negotiated early deals to buy carbon credits from others to meet their emissions targets. Under the mechanism, the UAE startup Blue Carbon aim to trade credits with several Caribbean and African nations, Switzerland signed an agreement to trade credits with Peru and Singapore signed a deal with Papua New Guinea.

Gilles Dufrasne, policy lead at Carbon Market Watch said “Trading carbon credits requires strong environmental and human rights guardrails. The text on the table just didn’t provide this. It would have risked reproducing the mistakes of voluntary carbon markets, and by rejecting it, negotiators made the best out of a bad situation.”

NOW CALL TO ACTION

Stakes were high at COP28 negotiations and the Climate Deal will open exciting opportunities and support going forward that will bring better quality-of-life improvements to many in need. But the final text did not mention the peaking of emissions by 2025, which is a critical timeline for countries to deliver on the goal of the Paris Agreement.

NOW is calling for country leaders to peak emissions before 2025 to limit global temperatures below 1.5°C and also below 2°C, plus reduce emissions by 43% before 2030 and methane by 1/3. 

It is not good enough to be good, we need to deliver on time to prevent the worsening of climate impacts on communities and the environment.

We are living climate change and everyone now understands that it is human-
induced and threatens the places, people, and things we love. More people are in favour of change, right up to the moment that it takes too much effort, costs more and makes people uncomfortable. But if we want any chance of a better future for us and the next generations, we have only one move left. Together, we must do better and do more, even if the changes annoy, disrupt, and inconvenience our lives.

It must be NOW!