Climate extremes are relentless … some parts of the world are drowning, some are burning, some are drying up, and the poorest and most vulnerable people everywhere are struggling to cope and survive.

Against this background of accelerating disasters, rising climate anxieties and the environment as a victim of war, the global climate conference COP29 will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22.

THE PARIS AGREEMENT

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement at COP21 in December 2015, the 197 members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that are parties to the agreement have been challenged to enhance ambition and enabling climate finance and action.

Signing the agreement became binding through ratification which committed governments to submit their plans to cut emissions to keep global temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial times and to “pursue efforts” to limit them further to 1.5°C. As of 2024, three countries – Iran and Libya, both among the 14-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – as well as Yemen have not ratified the agreement.

The Climate Action Tracker assessed the announced COP28 initiatives of UNFCCC members and found that few will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap and many lack the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference. On the total emissions savings that could be achieved by the pledges, around a quarter is already included in government nationally determined contribution (NDCs), around a quarter is additional and achievable, and around half is unlikely to be achieved without further action to improve the initiatives.

Equally concerning, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported in early November that 2024 will likely be the warmest ever recorded and the first year our planet will exceed the Paris Agreement threshold.

COP29 PRIORITIES

The UN Climate Change Conference COP29 is the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC.

COP29 priorities are ongoing sources of contention:

1. Advance the Paris Agreement’s commitment to limit global warming and boost ambition on national action plan.

The first UN Global Stocktake Report was concluded at COP28 in October 2023, an inventory that looks at where the world stands on support and climate action. It found that the world is not on track to achieve the goals set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, and there remains a vast gap between the pledges and actions planned to cut their greenhouse gas emissions (GHG).

A failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century. This would bring debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies. COP29 must bridge the vast gaps, turn pledges into available finances, and action decarbonization.

2. New global climate finance targets and action plans need to be set.

It was agreed during climate finance debates since the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, that developed nations which had benefited from decades of polluting industries, should contribute $100 billion a year by 2020 to support climate action in developing nations. This goal was not reached until 2022. The target amount expires in 2025 and nations will have to agree on a new figure. Some analysts estimate the developing world needs anywhere from $500 billion to $6 trillion to enact its climate plans.

A ‘Carbon Brief analysis on Which countries are historically responsible for climate change? ‘ explained the historical responsibility for climate change at the heart of debates over climate justice. This is the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted since 1850, the start of the industrial revolution.

A point of contention for over a decade, China has self-designated itself as a developing country and allowed concessions on emissions and access to global funds, even though it is the world’s second largest economy after the United States! Developing nations—including China—want an enormous increase for climate finance to more than $1 trillion a year.

The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is still being contested and creative financial solutions will be vital. The ambition is for it to replace the former Paris Agreement pledge of US$100 billion per year for developing countries, which was not met in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It was only met for the first time in 2023.

The $700 million Loss and Damage Funds raised to date falls short of replenishing the estimated $400 billion in losses that developing countries face each year. Adaptation resources and financing need to be secured to help the most vulnerable communities adapt to the change that’s already occurring. New and innovative sources of funding from the private sector need to increase to help developing countries cope with climate change.

3. Operationalise Article 6 of the Paris Agreement

Article 6 created principles for carbon markets and ways countries could cooperate to reach climate targets. Negotiation is needed to establish the necessary guidance to operationalise the rules agreed to at COP26.

4. Transition to Clean Energy

It is important to fast track the energy transition without leaving countries behind and increase the emissions to be slashed before 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5° C (2.7° F) above pre-industrial levels.

6. Collaborate with Indigenous Peoples and local communities and use of natural climate solutions

It is vital to mobilise inclusivity in the discussions, decisions and implementation of solutions, and put nature, people, lives and livelihoods at the heart of climate action to deliver on most of the sustainable development goals by 2030.

COP29 KEY PLAYERS

With nearly 200 countries attending COP29, reaching a consensus will be a massive challenge.

CHINA is the world’s biggest greenhouse gas polluter emitting about 30% of the world’s annual carbon emissions by producing the most energy from climate-warming fossil fuels and also from renewable energy sources. Beijing rejects calls for it to contribute to climate finance for developing countries.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is the world’s largest historic emitter and the second largest emitter with 4.8 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) in 2023 – a decrease of 2.7 percent from the previous year. While the Biden Administration has contributed hundreds of billions of US dollars for climate change mitigation and adaptation, it continues to break records as the world’s biggest oil and gas producer. Trump’s victory in the recent presidential election risks another pull out of the 2015 Paris Agreement and reduced the chance of a strong deal on a new global finance target.

EUROPEAN UNION emitted an estimated 897 million tonnes of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2023 and contributed the most global climate finance with 28.6 billion euros ($30.8 billion USD) from public sources.  EU member states include Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.

UNITED KINGDOM is “back in the business of climate leadership” according to its new Labour Party government but it is unclear how much it will contribute.

THE TROIKA are the host countries of COP28 (United Arab Emirates), COP29 (Azerbaijan) and COP30 (Brazil) and among the world’s 10 biggest oil producers.

G77 + CHINA is a negotiating bloc alliance of 77 developing countries and China who says rich countries have a bigger responsibility to cut CO2 than poorer nations.

AFRICAN GROUP is a negotiating bloc of African countries pushing for more climate finance and getting the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 on carbon market rules into force by early 2025. Challenge a decision to place the fund’s technical assistance body in the high-cost city Geneva instead of Nairobi.

ALLIANCE OF SMALL ISLAND STATES is a negotiating block of countries focused on securing trillions of dollars in climate financing for serious climate impacts, notably sea level rise, and advancing global efforts to phase out fossil fuel use.

LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRY GROUP is a negotiating block of 45 highly vulnerable nations that have contributed little to climate change and asking for significant grant funding from developed countries.

ANOTHER CONTROVERSIAL HOST COUNTRY

There are huge concerns that COP is once again being hosted by a petrostate for the second year which might hinder any progress for key countries to commit to “transition away” from fossil fuels.  Oil and natural gas bring in around 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s export revenues and finance around 60 per cent of the government budget, according to the International Energy Agency.

The president of COP29 Mukhtar Babayev worked at Azerbaijan’s state oil company for more than two decades before his present role as his country’s minister for ecology and natural resources since 2018.

To limit global warming, the world needs to cut fossil fuel production rapidly in the coming years, yet an analysis shared with UK newspaper the Guardian revealed that Azerbaijan plans to increase its fossil fuel production by over a third in the next decade. A recent secret BBC recording shows the chief executive of Azerbaijan’s COP29 team, Elnur Soltanov, discussing “investment opportunities” in the state oil and gas company with a man posing as a potential investor.  Soltanov is also the deputy energy minister of Azerbaijan and is on the board of Socar.

For the third year running, the host country is also another authoritarian state with a dubious human rights record. It also ranks close to the bottom of Transparency International’s annual list.

IT’S NOW OR NEVER … AGAIN!

We need a strong signal of progress on climate action.

It is vital for COP29 to achieve critical goals that align climate finance contributions with estimated global needs.  G20 leaders – whose economies account for three-quarters of global emissions – reaffirmed last month that they would shift away from fossil fuels, but the gap between what countries say and what they do is significant.

“Now, is the moment for all actors to make a quantum leap in ambition and action,” says Takeshi Kuramochi, co-author of the 2024 UNEP Emissions Gap Report which indicates that if only “current policies” are implemented the world could heat up to a disastrous 3.1C.