It took place at the end of another worrisome year when our globe reached more than 1.5°C (or 2.7°F) of warming since pre-industrial levels which accelerated extreme weather that caused more severe droughts, more devastating floods, more catastrophic hurricanes, more disastrous typhoons, more fatal forest fires and more tragic deaths worldwide. Our world is having its hottest year ever … again … according to the European climate agency Copernicus.  

THE DEAL

Hugely responsible for historical climate change, rich countries agreed in 2009 to provide developing countries with an insufficient $100 billion a year by 2020, a pledge that was only met two years past the deadline.

COP29 focused heavily on finance, a politically controversial and vital climate issue with great expectations of funds for loss and damage, and for enabling the transition away from fossil fuels announced at COP28.

The loss and damage fund is up and running but dismally underfunded, even with the new climate deal which developing nations hope will come in the form of grants rather than loans that will trap them further in debt.

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the UN process for negotiating an agreement to limit dangerous climate change, a breakthrough agreement was reached at COP29.  Known formally as the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), the deal reached will triple finance to developing countries, from the previous goal of USD 100 billion annually, to USD 300 billion annually by 2035 and secure efforts of all actors to work together to scale up finance to developing countries, from public and private sources to the amount of USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.

At the opening ceremony of COP 29, the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said, “It is vital for COP29 to achieve critical goals that align climate finance contributions with estimated global needs.  G20 leaders – whose economies account for three-quarters of global emissions – reaffirmed last month that they would shift away from fossil fuels, but the gap between what countries say and what they do is significant.”

At the closing of COP29, Stiell remarked:

“It has been a difficult journey, but we’ve delivered a deal. This new finance goal is an insurance policy for humanity, amid worsening climate impacts hitting every country. But like any insurance policy – it only works if premiums are paid in full, and on time. Promises must be kept, to protect billions of lives. This deal will keep the clean energy boom growing, helping all countries to share in its huge benefits: more jobs, stronger growth, cheaper and cleaner energy for all.”

“We needed this to be an enabling COP – one which helped translate the pledges of COP28 into real-world outcomes to protect people, prosperity, and the planet. And that’s what we have made possible.”

“At COP28 the world agreed to triple renewables. At COP29 we tripled climate finance, and countries will work to mobilize much, much more.”

“At COP28 the world agreed to boost climate resilience. COP29 will help finance real protections for those on the frontlines, especially the most vulnerable.”

“COP29 also reached global agreement on carbon markets, after almost a decade of hard work, where several previous COPs were not able to get this done.”

“But we are still a long way off course. Bold new climate plans on the way to Belém will be crucial to getting us back in the race. They must embed the targets we agreed in Dubai, including to rapidly ramp up renewables, transition away from fossil fuels, and transform societies, making them more resilient.”

“No country got everything they wanted, and we leave Baku with a mountain of work to do. “

CLIMATE INJUSTICE FRUSTRATION AND FURY

The G77 group of developing countries had called for a sum of $500 billion which richer nations rejected as unrealistic given current economic circumstances.

Furious developing countries were damning in their criticism as soon as the gavel went down on the $300 billion per year commitment.

– Marshall Island climate convoy Tina Stege said, “We are leaving with a small portion of the funding climate-vulnerable countries urgently need” and described the talks as showing the “very worst of political opportunism” with fossil fuel interests “determined to block progress and undermine the multilateral goals we’ve worked to build.”

– Chandni Raina of India described the deal as “abysmally poor and a paltry sum” and the agreement as “unable to address the enormity of the challenge we all face” and “nothing more than an optical illusion.”

– Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute called the deal “a flawed compromise” that reflects the “harder geopolitical terrain the world finds itself in.”

FOSSIL FUEL INTEREST DOMINATE

Despite last year’s climate deal calling for the first time on countries to “transition away from fossil fuels,” major economies are still planning oil and gas expansions in the decades ahead.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in October that renewable technology like solar and wind is being rolled-out at breakneck speed but not fast enough to stop burning more oil, coal and gas.

COP29 took place in another petrostate for the second consecutive year and according to an analysis by a coalition of groups called Kick Big Polluters Out, all country delegations were outnumbered by more than 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists or industry players registered to attend the talks.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, once again pushed against ambitious action and publicly rejected any reference to oil, coal and gas in the deal.

There were also calls on zero-emission fuels in shipping and other transport sectors but these will require significant climate finance and little to no progress was made.

Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London observed, “It’s been another shady, oil-stained COP. Public interest in this COP has been low and cynicism feels like it has reached an all time high.”

Tasneem Essop, executive director of Climate Action Network said, “This has been the most horrendous climate negotiations in years due to the bad faith of developed countries- This was meant to be the finance COP, but the Global North turned up with a plan to betray the Global South.”

Harjeet Singh of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative noted that the outcome “offers false hope to those already bearing the brunt of climate disasters,” and said, “We must persist in our fight, demanding a significant increase in financing and holding developed countries to account.”

– Pa’olelei Luteru, a Samoan diplomat who chairs the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) concluded, “Countries threatened by climate disaster were waiting in vain to see the sharp decline in fossil fuel production that was heralded.  Alas, saying something is one thing and actually meaning it is quite another.”

OPERATIONALISING ARTICLE 6 & BOOSTING AMBITION

After nearly a decade of negotiations, leaders at COP29 reached a consensus on Article 6 of the 2015 Paris Agreement which will help countries work together to reduce their carbon emissions. It sets out two options for countries and companies to trade carbon offsets, helping them meet the goals they set to reduce warming gases in their climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in a cost-effective manner, and in bolstering ambition in mitigation and adaptation.

– One allows two countries to set their own terms for a bilateral carbon trading agreement, this is known as Article 6.2.

– The second aims to create a central, UN-managed system for countries and companies to begin offsetting their carbon emissions and trading those offsets, known as Article 6.4.

Article 6 compliant markets will be a critical tool to channel more investment to developing countries and allow countries to target mitigation efforts to where the costs are lowest.

ISSUES LEFT HANGING

According to The Conversation article by University College of London professors – Mark Maslin, Priti Parikh and Simon Chin-Yee, a more realistic interpretation is that COP29 was a collective failure to provide the investment needed to shift the world away from fossil fuels. All this means we are still looking at a future with global warming above 3˚C.

Five critical issues are still left hanging:

1. Where is the money?

We urgently need to invest trillions of dollars in climate mitigation and adaptation—yet even though this was the finance COP, very little money was put on the table. Developing countries asked for US$1.3 trillion from developed countries by 2035, with added voluntary contributions from better-off countries still classed as developing, such as China. What they got in the early hours of Sunday, after the summit had overrun by 33 hours, was a much lower pledge of US$300 billion by 2035 from governments and the private sector.

2. China steps up, India stays at home and US says goodbye

China means business when it comes to carbon neutrality and investment in green technologies. That much was evident from strong engagement at COP29 from its ministries, private sector and experts. However, it wants to stick to the definitions of “developing nations” used when the UN’s climate framework was devised back in 1992. Under that definition, China—now the world’s second largest economy—is still self-described as developing and needs only make voluntary contributions to climate finance.

India, dismissed COP29 as a “technical COP” with the senior leadership staying at home in part due to elections in the state of Maharashtra. India’s delegation said that the US$1.3 trillion investment should come from developed nations (which do not include India). India did express its disappointment in a strong statement once the COP agreement was ratified.

The US said goodbye to serious action on climate change the very day Donald Trump got elected as president which led to subdued mood at the country’s pavilion and quite a few hotel room cancellations in Baku. Many have suggested the lack of financial ambition is in part because the US will not be contributing to the funds during a Trump presidency.

3. Saudi Arabia tries to wreck the party

Last year’s climate summit agreed a historic resolution to “transition away from fossil fuels.” Yet from the beginning of COP29, the Saudis tried to ensure that it was not restated this year, much to the annoyance of the UK, the EU and many other countries—including even fellow petrostate (and COP28 host) the UAE.

At the final hour, the resolution was included in this year’s COP agreement, but only by referring to it by paragraph and document number, so the words “fossil fuels” do not appear in this year’s agreement. However, the text does include “transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition.” This is largely a reference to natural gas, which is considered a transitional fuel. So another win for the fossil fuel lobby.

4. Methane commitments

There were some more positive outcomes from the summit, such as a pledge on methane. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and can be emitted by decomposing food and other organic waste, often in landfills. After agriculture and fossil fuels, this is the third-largest source of methane emissions from human activity.

At COP29, 30 countries representing nearly 50% of global methane emissions from organic waste signed up to reduce those emissions as part of their future climate action plans. This pledge will pave the way to develop methane capture technologies, especially in landfill sites, and to use some of that methane as bio-gas for heat or electricity.

5. Youth focus

At COP29, the UN secretary general, António Guterres, addressed youth representatives: “You have every right to be angry. I am angry too.”

The UK was the first out of 196 countries to sign up to the universal youth clause designed to be integrated into the pledges countries make to cut their carbon emissions (known as NDCs). If adopted by other nations, this clause would put children and young people center stage both as stakeholders affected by climate change, but also as agents of change. Given the political backlash in many countries against climate action, this empowerment of the youth is essential, as they will take the reins to secure the future for themselves and generations to come.

WHAT’S NEXT

The next submissions of the National Determined Contribution (NDC) is due by February 2025 in accordance with Decision 1/CP.21, and Article 4.9 of the Paris Agreement​.

COP30 will be held in the Amazonian city of Belém do Pará in Brazil from November 10 to 21, 2025, marking the ten-year anniversary of the Paris agreement.